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+$1,200No · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $40.4k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -52.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-52.0 pts
Called / graded
0/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$222.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$140.8k
Last 30 days +$704 · $3.03M volume · 100 trades · since Jul 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$54.0k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$194.2k
Closed-position win rate
93%
46 closed
Wallet age · markets
454d
63 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -9.0 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | -66.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $30.8k | pending |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $13.4k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $16.7k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $25.7k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
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