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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -41.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-41.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$40.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$86.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $852.9k volume · 114 trades · since Jun 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.5k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$75.2k
Closed-position win rate
55%
31 closed
Wallet age · markets
494d
41 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -41.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $11.0k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5f8a94…