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What this means. A wallet put $49.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$49.5k
BUY Yes @ 99¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (buy) for $49.5k at an average 99¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $49.5k+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−9900American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99¢
- Implied odds
- 99.0%
- Size
- $49.5k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 16:38 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xd87f931c…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsYes price · entry 99¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |