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Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -4.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$50.2kNo · avg 86¢ → 97.9¢ · $432.7k Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$9,733No · avg 86¢ → 97¢ · $86.2k Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?+$113No · avg 91.3¢ → 95.9¢ · $2,388 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$1,297Yes · avg 29¢ → 18¢ · $2,285 Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?+$155No · avg 80¢ → 90¢ · $1,460 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?−$2,436No · avg 11¢ → 3.9¢ · $1,278 Will Russia invade another country in 2026?+$40No · avg 92¢ → 95¢ · $1,266 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?−$1,041Yes · avg 27¢ → 5.5¢ · $266

Price-adjusted edge

-4.0 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

2.1

Flagged volume

$105.5k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$46.3k

Last 30 days +$13.4k · $6.45M volume · 4,612 trades · since Aug 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$197.1k

Open P&L · 88 positions

−$261.2k

Closed-position win rate

62%

114 closed

Wallet age · markets

1158d

159 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	3	2	2.1	-4.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$33.2k	67%	216d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$11.4k	75%	238d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$10.8k	81%	238d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$50.0k 2.2× usual	70%	282d ago	called

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?called

BUY No @ 67¢$33.2k

LOW ololololololololo · 216d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 75¢$11.4k

LOW ololololololololo · 238d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 81¢$10.8k

LOW ololololololololo · 238d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 70¢$50.0k

LOW ololololololololo · 282d ago

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