← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +27.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +13.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.5 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$1.29M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$296k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? at 17¢) and the edge is +13.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 13% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 96% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$940.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $51.48M volume · 19,310 trades · since Oct 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.58M
Open P&L · 70 positions
−$491.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
751d
1181 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 3 | 1.7 | +33.4 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 91.5¢ | $56.4k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 83¢ | $65.9k | called |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $23.7k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $45.6k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ | $72.6k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ | $97.2k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 95.9¢ | $21.1k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 96¢ | $31.0k | missed |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ | $143.0k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | HIGH SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $111.5k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $128.8k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $43.4k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $25.6k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $65.3k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $41.7k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $49.9k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $43.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $165.8k 2.9× usual |
called |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x889e7f0464c72eb8cda1525ebc12b6aaba9d09e0"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x889e7f0464c72eb8cda1525ebc12b6aaba9d09e0.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x889e7f…