← Wallets
+$6,525No · avg 82¢ → 95.5¢ · $47.7k+$1,586Yes · avg 69¢ → 74¢ · $25.9k−$2,933Yes · avg 70¢ → 62¢ · $21.7k+$75Yes · avg 91¢ → 91.5¢ · $13.7k−$1,031Yes · avg 29¢ → 26¢ · $9,582 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$174No · avg 50¢ → 49¢ · $8,665−$16.5kYes · avg 26¢ → 5.5¢ · $4,373 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$2,322Yes · avg 28¢ → 18¢ · $4,256
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+13.0 pts
Called / graded
6/8
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$291.6k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$34k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? at 38¢) and the edge is +6.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 38% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 49% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$216.0k
Last 30 days +$834 · $5.66M volume · 1,267 trades · since Aug 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$89.4k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$44.0k
Closed-position win rate
53%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
440d
105 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 6 | 5.0 | +13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $13.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $23.8k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $34.8k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $31.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $18.7k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $25.9k | called |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $11.3k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $12.1k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $12.4k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $27.8k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $51.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
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