Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$142
Return on staked
+17.7%
Bets
6/8 won
Edge vs price
+13.0 pts ±15.4
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 17, 12:29 ESTMay 25, 18:05 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 66¢ | called | 151d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 87¢ | called | 186d ago |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 58¢ | called | 215d ago |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | 96¢ | called | 221d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 40¢ | missed | 233d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 37¢ | missed | 235d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 74¢ | called | 238d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 38¢ | called | 249d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.