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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 12.7 wins, so it did +1.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +0.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.9 pts
Called / graded
13/15
Expected from price
12.7
Flagged volume
$1.88M
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$18k15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US government shutdown Saturday? at 80¢) and the edge is +0.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 40% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=13
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$255.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.77M volume · 6,742 trades · since Jan 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$564.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
67%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
645d
453 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 6 | 6.0 | -0.6 pts |
| Economy | 6 | 6 | 5.7 | +4.4 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
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