Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$77
Return on staked
-5.1%
Bets
13/15 won
Edge vs price
+1.9 pts ±8.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +7.1 pts (7/7). Newer half: -2.6 pts (6/8). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 07, 12:47 ESTFeb 28, 16:36 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 93¢ | called | 238d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 40¢ | missed | 242d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 40¢ | missed | 243d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 270d ago |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | 80¢ | called | 271d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | 93¢ | called | 274d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 90¢ | called | 282d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 284d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 284d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 284d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 284d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 284d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 284d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 83¢ | called | 289d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 89¢ | called | 290d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.