Epstein

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$1,350No · avg 64¢ → 78¢ · $7,750

Price-adjusted edge

+5.8 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$313.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$128.0k

Last 30 days +$400 · $7.24M volume · 14,182 trades · since Nov 03, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 489 closed

+$127.3k

Open P&L · 6 positions

+$711

Closed-position win rate

55%

489 closed

Wallet age · markets

719d

444 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	0.9	+5.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$77.7k 4.2× usual	0%	235d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$19.9k	100%	237d ago	excluded
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢	$11.9k	99%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$11.1k	74%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.4¢	$53.0k 2.9× usual	96%	243d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$15.0k	0%	247d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$17.1k	79%	252d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$53.6k 2.9× usual	98%	257d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢	$43.7k 2.4× usual	97%	258d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 91¢	$10.3k	9%	305d ago	missed

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$77.7k

LOW Epstein · 235d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$19.9k

LOW Epstein · 237d ago

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.1¢$11.9k

LOW Epstein · 237d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 74¢$11.1k

LOW Epstein · 238d ago

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96.4¢$53.0k

MED Epstein · 243d ago

US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$15.0k

LOW Epstein · 247d ago

Government shutdown on Saturday?called

SELL Yes @ 21¢$17.1k

LOW Epstein · 252d ago

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.5¢$53.6k

LOW Epstein · 257d ago

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.2¢$43.7k

LOW Epstein · 258d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?missed

SELL No @ 91¢$10.3k

LOW Epstein · 305d ago

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