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What this means. A wallet put $10.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 9% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.3k
SELL No @ 91¢ · 11,344 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Epstein took No (sell) for $10.3k at an average 91¢. At that price the market implied a 9% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 91¢
- Implied odds
- 9.0%
- Size
- $10.3k
- Placed
- Dec 22, 11:14 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Epstein
- Tx
- 0x1a4f2fea…
This wallet's graded record
1/2+5.8 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $53.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |