← Wallets
+$4,062No · avg 83¢ → 97.7¢ · $27.6k+$9,829No · avg 49¢ → 94.5¢ · $20.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,195No · avg 73¢ → 91.5¢ · $5,913+$1,200No · avg 78¢ → 98¢ · $5,880+$1,209No · avg 61¢ → 94¢ · $3,446+$91No · avg 78¢ → 82¢ · $2,077
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 15 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 9.2 wins, so it did +38.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +35.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+38.8 pts
Called / graded
15/15
Expected from price
9.2
Flagged volume
$1.15M
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$375k15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 15 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? at 14¢) and the edge is +35.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 14% · n=1
20–40¢
100% vs 33% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 50% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=9
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$826.2k
Last 30 days +$752 · $4.64M volume · 721 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$827.7k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$1,515
Closed-position win rate
73%
97 closed
Wallet age · markets
748d
99 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 14 | 14 | 8.3 | +40.7 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +13.0 pts |
History
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