Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,505
Return on staked
+100.3%
Bets
15/15 won
Edge vs price
+38.8 pts ±11.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +35.7 pts (7/7). Newer half: +41.6 pts (8/8).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 06, 12:27 ESTMar 02, 01:07 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 87¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 62¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 57¢ | called | 237d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 70¢ | called | 238d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 66¢ | called | 238d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 66¢ | called | 239d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 44¢ | called | 248d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 14¢ | called | 250d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 33¢ | called | 250d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 69¢ | called | 282d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 61¢ | called | 282d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 81¢ | called | 282d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 65¢ | called | 290d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 71¢ | called | 290d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 70¢ | called | 290d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.