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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did +10.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.9 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$486.2k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$53k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 58¢) and the edge is +5.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 56% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$22.5k
Last 30 days −$1,001 · $1.80M volume · 205 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$183.7k
Open P&L · 47 positions
−$144.4k
Closed-position win rate
87%
105 closed
Wallet age · markets
284d
150 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +20.5 pts |
| Other | 5 | 4 | 3.6 | +7.1 pts |
History
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