What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did -1.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.5 pts
Called / graded
6/10
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$5.16M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$78k
10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 72¢) and the edge is -4.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 14% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$661.6k
Last 30 days −$13.3k · $82.92M volume · 40,501 trades · since Sep 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
