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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -77.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-77.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$99.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$136.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $989.9k volume · 742 trades · since Nov 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$20.6k
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$113.7k
Closed-position win rate
74%
100 closed
Wallet age · markets
344d
112 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -77.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $43.4k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $18.9k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf33d2a…