37ordinary

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?+$5No · avg 59¢ → 82¢ · $19 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?+$1No · avg 86¢ → 97.8¢ · $5

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$100.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$2,267

Last 30 days +$259 · $494.4k volume · 227 trades · since Nov 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$2,142

Open P&L · 5 positions

+$133

Closed-position win rate

72%

83 closed

Wallet age · markets

350d

67 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$14.1k	100%	22d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$13.7k	100%	72d ago	excluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$12.6k	100%	175d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.5k	100%	191d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.4k	100%	198d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$10.5k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.2k	100%	237d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.1k	100%	259d ago	excluded

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$14.1k

LOW 37ordinary · 22d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$13.7k

LOW 37ordinary · 72d ago

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$12.6k

LOW 37ordinary · 175d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$12.5k

LOW 37ordinary · 191d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$12.4k

LOW 37ordinary · 198d ago

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$10.5k

LOW 37ordinary · 206d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$12.2k

LOW 37ordinary · 237d ago

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$12.1k

LOW 37ordinary · 259d ago

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