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gmanas

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 17. The prices it paid implied about 11.2 wins, so it did +4.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.8 pts
Called / graded
12/17
Expected from price
11.2
Flagged volume
$7.46M
Sample size17 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$95k
17 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$115k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Thunder (-4.5) at 49¢) and the edge is +1.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
40% vs 54% · n=5
60–80¢
89% vs 70% · n=9
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4.90M
Last 30 days +$0 · $529.05M volume · 135,978 trades · since Nov 17, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$52.78M
Open P&L · 179 positions
−$2.72M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
341d
4907 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Crypto110.9+11.0 pts
Sports1197.2+15.9 pts
Other523.0-20.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $1.37M
43.8× usual
0% 236d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. NetsLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ $35.5k100% 236d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsLOW BUY Nuggets @ 58¢ $13.0k58% 236d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. NetsMED BUY Cavaliers @ 83¢ $189.6k
6.1× usual
83% 236d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $67.8k
2.2× usual
99% 236d agoexcluded
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-01?LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ $32.1k41% 236d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1LOW BUY Legacy @ 44¢ $30.5k44% 236d agocalled
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01?LOW BUY No @ 53¢ $83.9k
2.7× usual
53% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $371.9k
11.9× usual
100% 237d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1LOW BUY NIP @ 55¢ $48.5k55% 237d agomissed
Lakers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Lakers @ 62¢ $16.3k62% 237d agoexcluded
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $67.5k
2.2× usual
45% 237d agoexcluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $21.2k58% 237d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $477.2k
15.2× usual
100% 238d agoexcluded
Nuggets vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 75¢ $46.6k75% 238d agoexcluded
Nuggets vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 57¢ $12.4k57% 238d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 84¢ $12.3k84% 238d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLOW BUY Pistons @ 80¢ $37.7k80% 238d agoexcluded
Nets vs. CelticsMED BUY Celtics @ 91.8¢ $60.8k92% 238d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 24¢ $15.2k24% 238d agoexcluded
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $11.0k55% 238d agoexcluded
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ $18.5k51% 238d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 26¢ $21.7k26% 239d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. ClippersLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 76¢ $40.1k76% 239d agoexcluded
Lakers vs. SunsLOW BUY Lakers @ 67¢ $15.6k67% 239d agoexcluded
Rockets vs. MagicLOW BUY Rockets @ 64¢ $14.2k64% 239d agoexcluded
Lakers vs. SunsLOW BUY Lakers @ 66¢ $18.5k66% 239d agomissed
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26?LOW BUY No @ 36¢ $39.6k36% 239d agoexcluded
Celtics vs. NuggetsLOW BUY Nuggets @ 94¢ $11.0k94% 240d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. RaptorsMED BUY Spurs @ 73¢ $93.8k
3.0× usual
73% 240d agoexcluded
Thunder vs. PistonsLOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ $85.6k
2.7× usual
79% 240d agoexcluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ $34.4k81% 240d agoexcluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $50.5k47% 240d agoexcluded
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5LOW BUY Under @ 41¢ $16.9k41% 240d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. Trail BlazersMED BUY Timberwolves @ 70¢ $181.8k
5.8× usual
70% 241d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $35.4k89% 241d agocalled
Warriors vs. PelicansLOW BUY Pelicans @ 74¢ $24.2k74% 241d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. Trail BlazersLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ $42.9k68% 241d agocalled
Warriors vs. PelicansLOW BUY Warriors @ 53¢ $28.9k53% 241d agoexcluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ $17.2k54% 241d agoexcluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $14.0k71% 241d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. PistonsLOW BUY Spurs @ 99.9¢ $12.4k100% 242d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca PlayoffsLOW BUY Vitality @ 87¢ $51.2k87% 243d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?LOW BUY No @ 30¢ $15.0k30% 243d agoexcluded
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup PlayoffsLOW BUY Gen.G @ 87¢ $55.2k87% 245d agocalled
Raptors vs. BullsLOW BUY Raptors @ 99.9¢ $15.3k100% 246d agoexcluded
Raptors vs. BullsLOW BUY Raptors @ 67¢ $14.3k67% 246d agoexcluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $30.5k93% 248d agoexcluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ $37.6k48% 248d agoexcluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ $10.2k47% 248d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageLOW BUY FURIA @ 66¢ $16.1k66% 249d agocalled
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageLOW BUY MOUZ @ 35¢ $13.1k35% 249d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageMED BUY Vitality @ 67¢ $159.3k
5.1× usual
67% 250d agocalled
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $31.1k59% 253d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. WarriorsMED BUY Spurs @ 48¢ $75.0k
2.4× usual
48% 254d agoexcluded
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ $168.0k
5.4× usual
56% 255d agoexcluded
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsLOW BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas @ 97¢ $24.2k97% 256d agoexcluded
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsLOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 29¢ $13.9k29% 256d agoexcluded
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsLOW BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas @ 37¢ $48.5k37% 257d agocalled
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsLOW BUY Top Esports @ 78¢ $83.7k
2.7× usual
78% 257d agocalled
Seahawks vs. PatriotsMED BUY Seahawks @ 90¢ $150.7k
4.8× usual
90% 257d agoexcluded
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ $12.1k30% 257d agoexcluded
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ $16.5k68% 257d agoexcluded
Seahawks vs. PatriotsHIGH BUY Patriots @ 33¢ $191.5k
6.1× usual
33% 257d agoexcluded
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 32¢ $31.3k32% 257d agoexcluded
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 32¢ $32.5k32% 257d agoexcluded
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 33¢ $42.9k33% 257d agoexcluded
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 33¢ $31.8k33% 257d agoexcluded
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 32¢ $13.1k32% 257d agoexcluded
Seahawks vs. PatriotsMED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ $168.1k
5.4× usual
32% 257d agomissed
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)LOW BUY Rockets @ 49¢ $58.6k49% 258d agocalled
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY MOUZ @ 76¢ $74.8k
2.4× usual
76% 259d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY G2 @ 40¢ $21.4k40% 259d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY G2 @ 38¢ $70.0k
2.2× usual
38% 259d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY FURIA @ 62¢ $40.2k62% 260d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 35¢ $25.1k35% 260d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsLOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 35¢ $35.0k35% 260d agomissed
Predators vs. CapitalsLOW BUY Predators @ 39¢ $27.5k39% 260d agomissed
Bruins vs. PanthersLOW BUY Bruins @ 47¢ $13.4k47% 261d agoexcluded
Sabres vs. LightningLOW BUY Lightning @ 54¢ $11.8k54% 262d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BLOW BUY Vitality @ 72¢ $72.0k
2.3× usual
72% 262d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BLOW BUY Team Falcons @ 56¢ $28.0k56% 262d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BMED BUY Vitality @ 75¢ $112.5k
3.6× usual
75% 263d agocalled
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ALOW BUY FURIA @ 53¢ $22.3k53% 263d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ALOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 42¢ $28.7k42% 263d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ALOW BUY FURIA @ 56¢ $55.3k56% 264d agocalled
Bulls vs. HeatLOW BUY Heat @ 67¢ $21.5k67% 264d agocalled
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak DjokovicLOW BUY Alcaraz @ 88¢ $34.7k88% 265d agoexcluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak DjokovicLOW BUY Alcaraz @ 78¢ $28.0k78% 265d agoexcluded
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)LOW BUY Fiziev @ 54¢ $16.6k54% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $32.6k99% 266d agoexcluded
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)LOW BUY Knicks @ 47¢ $12.6k47% 266d agoexcluded
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 51¢ $107.3k
3.4× usual
51% 266d agoexcluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevMED BUY Alcaraz @ 57¢ $75.5k
2.4× usual
57% 267d agoexcluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevMED BUY Zverev @ 67¢ $37.3k67% 267d agoexcluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevMED BUY Alcaraz @ 46¢ $60.1k46% 267d agoexcluded
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena RybakinaLOW BUY Rybakina @ 90¢ $12.4k90% 268d agoexcluded
Warriors vs. JazzLOW BUY Warriors @ 99.9¢ $45.6k100% 268d agoexcluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ $346.7k
11.1× usual
64% 268d agoexcluded
Trail Blazers vs. CelticsLOW BUY Celtics @ 72¢ $31.0k72% 270d agocalled
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)LOW BUY Hornets @ 51¢ $27.4k51% 270d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $33.1k68% 271d agocalled
Rams vs. SeahawksMED BUY Rams @ 32¢ $80.0k
2.6× usual
32% 271d agoexcluded
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 46¢ $22.9k46% 271d agomissed
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Rams @ 51¢ $22.3k51% 271d agoexcluded
Rams vs. SeahawksLOW BUY Seahawks @ 53¢ $11.0k53% 271d agoexcluded
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 65¢ $17.6k65% 271d agoexcluded
Patriots vs. BroncosLOW BUY Patriots @ 63¢ $25.2k63% 271d agoexcluded
Chicago State Cougars vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 129.5MED BUY Over @ 51¢ $180.1k
5.7× usual
51% 271d agoexcluded
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik SinnerLOW BUY Sinner @ 74¢ $12.2k74% 273d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $16.3k73% 274d agocalled
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 58¢ $37.1k58% 278d agomissed
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $22.1k60% 278d agomissed

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