Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$37
Return on staked
+2.2%
Bets
12/17 won
Edge vs price
+4.8 pts ±11.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -2.2 pts (5/8). Newer half: +11.1 pts (7/9).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 18, 18:55 ESTFeb 28, 09:25 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | 58¢ | called | 238d ago |
| Lakers vs. Suns | 66¢ | missed | 239d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | 89¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | 68¢ | called | 241d ago |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | 87¢ | called | 245d ago |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | 66¢ | called | 249d ago |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | 78¢ | called | 257d ago |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | 49¢ | called | 259d ago |
| Predators vs. Capitals | 39¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | 75¢ | called | 263d ago |
| Bulls vs. Heat | 67¢ | called | 265d ago |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | 72¢ | called | 270d ago |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | 68¢ | called | 271d ago |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | 46¢ | missed | 271d ago |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | 73¢ | called | 274d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.