← Wallets
+$3,081No · avg 39¢ → 90¢ · $5,430
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -29.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-29.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$87.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$111.2k
Last 30 days −$61 · $3.24M volume · 4,537 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$148.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
+$3,081
Closed-position win rate
63%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
450d
506 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -29.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $25.4k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 71¢ | $21.8k | missed |
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