← Wallets
−$52.7kYes · avg 23¢ → 18¢ · $195.4k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -11.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.1 pts
Called / graded
0/8
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$2.09M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$104k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 5¢) and the edge is -12.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 11% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$406.0k
Last 30 days +$21.1k · $22.53M volume · 2,649 trades · since Jun 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.06M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$284.7k
Closed-position win rate
21%
104 closed
Wallet age · markets
493d
108 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 0 | 0.9 | -11.1 pts |
History
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