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What this means. A wallet put $181.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 10% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$181.2k
SELL No @ 90¢ · 201,500 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)12× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet TheQuietRisk took No (sell) for $181.2k at an average 90¢. At that price the market implied a 10% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $181.2k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 90¢
- Implied odds
- 10.1%
- Size
- $181.2k
- Placed
- Mar 29, 15:26 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- TheQuietRisk
- Tx
- 0xe0ae2778…
This wallet's graded record
0/8-11.1 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -10 ptsNo price · entry 90¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |