← Wallets
+$8,031Yes · avg 70¢ → 79¢ · $66.8k+$3,494No · avg 71¢ → 80¢ · $33.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$87No · avg 59¢ → 62¢ · $1,888+$4Yes · avg 74¢ → 75¢ · $312
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did -12.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-12.3 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$761.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$69k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 71¢) and the edge is -19.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 48% · n=1
60–80¢
75% vs 74% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$22.1k
Last 30 days +$71.2k · $35.37M volume · 48,382 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.93M
Open P&L · 339 positions
−$1.28M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1023d
1471 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.2 | -7.5 pts |
| Economy | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -5.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -48.0 pts |
History
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