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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.2 wins, so it did -46.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-46.1 pts
Called / graded
0/7
Expected from price
3.2
Flagged volume
$958.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$296k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 10¢) and the edge is -52.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
80–100¢
0% vs 91% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$687.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.13M volume · 537 trades · since Feb 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$41.1k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$646.1k
Closed-position win rate
92%
84 closed
Wallet age · markets
249d
92 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 1.4 | -28.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | -89.1 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc0a129…