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What this means. A wallet put $132.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 85% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$132.0k
BUY No @ 85¢ · 154,908 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)6.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet EddyAncogld took No (buy) for $132.0k at an average 85¢. At that price the market implied a 85% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $132.0k+2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 85¢ means
85%chance the market gave
−576American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Implied odds
- 85.2%
- Size
- $132.0k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 05:08 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 07, 21:24 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- EddyAncogld
- Tx
- 0xcb8b2bf5…
This wallet's graded record
0/7-46.1 pts
expected 3.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -85 ptsNo price · entry 85¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $143.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $68.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |