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Ordon

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$1.76M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$75.2k
Last 30 days +$931 · $36.74M volume · 40,783 trades · since Sep 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.14M
Open P&L · 27 positions
+$48
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
757d
6381 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other111.0+4.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $134.9k
2.7× usual
0% 128d agoexcluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $119.9k
2.4× usual
100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $19.9k100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $104.1k
2.1× usual
0% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $104.0k
2.1× usual
100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $16.4k96% 130d agocalled
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $199.5k
4.0× usual
100% 142d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $99.7k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $79.8k0% 178d agoexcluded
Will Trump dance today?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% 178d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $18.1k100% 190d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $110.5k
2.2× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $110.7k
2.2× usual
0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $142.1k
2.8× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $42.0k100% 234d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $79.8k100% 251d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $39.9k0% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $14.9k1% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.5k100% 266d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% 268d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $100.0k
2.0× usual
100% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $19.4k100% 294d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% 330d agoexcluded

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