{"flags":[{"condition_id":"0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x93415294133b9d8f401cd0cc003bed8585ccef16fa8c4f3d645cf7f59a331c69:0","id":"trade:0x93415294133b9d8f401cd0cc003bed8585ccef16fa8c4f3d645cf7f59a331c69:0","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1781741947,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","usd":11988.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x06921978a112865837d97619c319f21500a16c39dfc6ace4a0b6c34949972434:0","id":"trade:0x06921978a112865837d97619c319f21500a16c39dfc6ace4a0b6c34949972434:0","implied":0.0010000000000000009,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1781739869,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","usd":134865.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x2de8d7b9d103366e37f3a448db8289c5c571dec5c0b9eeddbc673546d4bd9322","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe2c33e7fe0635a7af7307b8c8000d3b226304ff52ad0210e41b0424ee1c58e42:0","id":"trade:0xe2c33e7fe0635a7af7307b8c8000d3b226304ff52ad0210e41b0424ee1c58e42:0","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1781739176,"title":"US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?","usd":119880.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6d7a9b0214c5d8f09a239a5cf0db5d6db669c18a6202ac92828868625c385b4f:0","id":"trade:0x6d7a9b0214c5d8f09a239a5cf0db5d6db669c18a6202ac92828868625c385b4f:0","implied":0.997,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.997,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1781719319,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","usd":19940.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x73c4f7e3b2095045ad91b3727a01540443054c46e6066bb1c1e54fdcaad44cd1:0","id":"trade:0x73c4f7e3b2095045ad91b3727a01540443054c46e6066bb1c1e54fdcaad44cd1:0","implied":0.0030000000000001137,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9969999999999999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1781655517,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","usd":104051.49622999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x815f60014e1e9935580434e57af78704fb374b7adaa6fbf427cea0ee5319f9f4:0","id":"trade:0x815f60014e1e9935580434e57af78704fb374b7adaa6fbf427cea0ee5319f9f4:0","implied":0.997,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.997,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1781655188,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","usd":103987.40907,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x20af55ab35186377b81219db6cb8615240cba42cea41731091be9484a5f5b122","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe8bb6c4cae200283356235da8c285f91023c3557a37966b88f61ab6f150eb52a:0","id":"trade:0xe8bb6c4cae200283356235da8c285f91023c3557a37966b88f61ab6f150eb52a:0","implied":0.96,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.96,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1781531751,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?","usd":16437.6672,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5751cdc83be17994f6dd62bc109cff42d2ae92b613afae90cba842a6dfdf6dde:1","id":"trade:0x5751cdc83be17994f6dd62bc109cff42d2ae92b613afae90cba842a6dfdf6dde:1","implied":0.9975,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9975,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1780533276,"title":"MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?","usd":199500.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x1d2787cb8aed975d092b2799ed6f4083e9445f7420cdc09e9d47e7d54356c6cd","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x025b5eed1919b07c7ce75dfb0472602d198f59565972b795b0694f20387550d5:1","id":"trade:0x025b5eed1919b07c7ce75dfb0472602d198f59565972b795b0694f20387550d5:1","implied":0.997,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.997,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1777499224,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?","usd":99700.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x36e8ca24d2a13435f519f15580d42b45cdbe3bc425fb39a7c2733260357af0fa","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xef584e30d26bef5caf4ba668d6089e529c74f17145a8267fbad12e3f6802e686:0","id":"trade:0xef584e30d26bef5caf4ba668d6089e529c74f17145a8267fbad12e3f6802e686:0","implied":0.998,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.998,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1777485622,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?","usd":49900.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x1d2787cb8aed975d092b2799ed6f4083e9445f7420cdc09e9d47e7d54356c6cd","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x1b02bd9a98b8ecfd727e3fbd525871b459032731b0ad6d76ff85541ea649dfb9:1","id":"trade:0x1b02bd9a98b8ecfd727e3fbd525871b459032731b0ad6d76ff85541ea649dfb9:1","implied":0.0029999999999998916,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9970000000000001,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1777425120,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?","usd":79769.95006,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x2d55f622bc12e23dc1f1bb4db8360c28c92155f9376bf73953c0756ee1387b2f","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xee936efdfa3105ac659a63ad3478d33deb2ef12538968819131c54fca315b709:0","id":"trade:0xee936efdfa3105ac659a63ad3478d33deb2ef12538968819131c54fca315b709:0","implied":0.0010000000000000009,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1777407656,"title":"Will Trump dance today?","usd":29970.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x9823d715687a0a82d2a03731792e83bf58a0409f10def1379e00e4d67a95ba69","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xc7e4276f52f0ccee675ce37250a5f086ff4144214e4d3dec30242e7accbd9fd6:0","id":"trade:0xc7e4276f52f0ccee675ce37250a5f086ff4144214e4d3dec30242e7accbd9fd6:0","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1776424114,"title":"Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?","usd":18111.35052,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609","excluded_reason":"late","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xa2c7fab521ec0fb8fc2b25e6e83692388769d65bdda4affbe0d27c9f679b1453:0","id":"trade:0xa2c7fab521ec0fb8fc2b25e6e83692388769d65bdda4affbe0d27c9f679b1453:0","implied":0.997545618194861,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.997545618194861,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1775610607,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","usd":110461.3486205019,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x15d87131e19f22103d4e77f2255a5065b96542a6da2529bb0042da529b29b4d6:0","id":"trade:0x15d87131e19f22103d4e77f2255a5065b96542a6da2529bb0042da529b29b4d6:0","implied":0.002000000000000113,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9979999999999999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1775610589,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","usd":110698.0103,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x16af477a93f7c1c2a9ce1a7aabd5d8c8e770dac5fcc129d53786fe51f39ef8ad:0","id":"trade:0x16af477a93f7c1c2a9ce1a7aabd5d8c8e770dac5fcc129d53786fe51f39ef8ad:0","implied":0.9978490378974562,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9978490378974562,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1775608397,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","usd":142113.51030000002,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xbcc976a97e2a5e2e1fd518595febc848aeb79bc60848ed6996d57e43a3f3e7b7:0","id":"trade:0xbcc976a97e2a5e2e1fd518595febc848aeb79bc60848ed6996d57e43a3f3e7b7:0","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1772569319,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","usd":41958.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x4b78de44ea49d0eb8d5fee85352294b6f679a47c56944c6ad5c945e9a2ba7211","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5bb29346669cf84c8400a8f81d034a34af014570bd520a890c20d0c992a66e5a:1","id":"trade:0x5bb29346669cf84c8400a8f81d034a34af014570bd520a890c20d0c992a66e5a:1","implied":0.998,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.998,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1771131721,"title":"Government shutdown on Saturday?","usd":79840.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x05beef793157deb1cc34e2d3159539f461b73c7eeaa3b5348617c10eed5509d0","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x9bfc8cf73649551793b319067c8ef67a5d99a148d2ddd6a49d06ae80b46bbd32:0","id":"trade:0x9bfc8cf73649551793b319067c8ef67a5d99a148d2ddd6a49d06ae80b46bbd32:0","implied":0.0020000000000000018,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.998,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1770088138,"title":"U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?","usd":39920.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x13b2ea18302f9e9a9e0b30abeb75a75a57e20c6388abc4af72073e256baee247:0","id":"trade:0x13b2ea18302f9e9a9e0b30abeb75a75a57e20c6388abc4af72073e256baee247:0","implied":0.006000000000000005,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.994,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1769870760,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","usd":14872.228,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xaadff836f92a0be1636e43588e72a8aadae6186090ad8039f52bef456fe2132a:0","id":"trade:0xaadff836f92a0be1636e43588e72a8aadae6186090ad8039f52bef456fe2132a:0","implied":0.998,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.998,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1769835888,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","usd":10529.90798,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0xe93c89c41d1bb08d3bb40066d8565df301a696563b2542256e6e8bbbb1ec490d","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe936c2def5274440ce7990ba88c9efd83cd95b7adaccfccabe3affbdf6c0721a:0","id":"trade:0xe936c2def5274440ce7990ba88c9efd83cd95b7adaccfccabe3affbdf6c0721a:0","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1769626816,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?","usd":49950.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x32707ae194389a70f25314ec934851daba12d893da616c492ffe8b655b7759a9","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2ec3bfa24629ab69edfd2fb7c1fa479cbea318d7307240cb6267bbcc2b9e33d8:1","id":"trade:0x2ec3bfa24629ab69edfd2fb7c1fa479cbea318d7307240cb6267bbcc2b9e33d8:1","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1767487371,"title":"Will Eleven die in \"Stranger Things: Season 5\"?","usd":99960.72920999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0x32707ae194389a70f25314ec934851daba12d893da616c492ffe8b655b7759a9","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x96fb0f4b6a619c819f27af2300cbe2790bbb6a6c40da0c1fac37707fa9a91b62:1","id":"trade:0x96fb0f4b6a619c819f27af2300cbe2790bbb6a6c40da0c1fac37707fa9a91b62:1","implied":0.9969999999999999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9969999999999999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1767395877,"title":"Will Eleven die in \"Stranger Things: Season 5\"?","usd":19378.54942,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"},{"condition_id":"0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xbd4782d1c062747bcdc37bd210abecfdacb8f1484a4137de776ecdb0c94f1067:1","id":"trade:0xbd4782d1c062747bcdc37bd210abecfdacb8f1484a4137de776ecdb0c94f1067:1","implied":0.999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1764268651,"title":"Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?","usd":49950.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"}],"record":{"called":1,"edge":0.040000000000000036,"exp_rate":0.96,"expected":0.96,"hit":1.0,"n":1,"se":0.19595917942265434},"wallet":"0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce"}
