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What this means. A wallet put $39.9k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.9k
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ · 40,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet Ordon took Yes (sell) for $39.9k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $39.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $39.9k
- Placed
- Feb 02, 22:08 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Ordon
- Tx
- 0x9bfc8cf7…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+4.0 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |