← Wallets
+$12.2kNo · avg 50¢ → 74¢ · $37.2k+$8,250Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $33.2k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$7,750No · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $32.8k+$7,750Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $32.8k−$7,750No · avg 50¢ → 34¢ · $17.2k−$7,750Yes · avg 50¢ → 34¢ · $17.2k−$8,250No · avg 50¢ → 34¢ · $16.8k · 0 proven with, 2 against−$12.2kYes · avg 50¢ → 26¢ · $12.8k
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.93M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$728.0k
Last 30 days −$20 · $144.21M volume · 393,207 trades · since Oct 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.61M
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$432
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
735d
23082 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $58.4k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | MED SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $184.8k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $234.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $99.8k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $77.4k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $82.2k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies | LOW BUY Suns @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $206.6k 6.9× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $79.1k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $74.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Nets vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
 Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $49.5k | excluded |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
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