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AgricultureSecretary

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +34.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 3 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+34.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$2.61M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$550.9k
Last 30 days −$156.7k · $48.14M volume · 46,968 trades · since Jun 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.21M
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$152.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
848d
13294 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other110.7+34.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 22?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $24.9k99% 1d agopending
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $25.3k99% 1d agopending
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢ $49.9k99% 1d agopending
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $46.0k100% 6d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $19.5k100% 8d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ $11.5k47% 49d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ $23.6k49% 49d agocalled
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $11.2k100% 69d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $16.1k100% 69d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $28.0k100% 81d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $32.3k95% 86d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.4k100% 128d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $248.4k
8.3× usual
100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $180.5k
6.0× usual
66% 131d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $628.8k
20.9× usual
100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $18.4k100% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $141.1k
4.7× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $22.2k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $13.7k100% 179d agoexcluded
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $74.7k
2.5× usual
100% 195d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ $36.5k1% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $12.1k100% 200d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ $10.3k97% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.3¢ $11.7k97% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?HIGH SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ $170.1k
5.7× usual
4% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $125.6k
4.2× usual
98% 237d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
3.3× usual
100% 262d agoexcluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $199.8k
6.6× usual
100% 334d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $71.5k
2.4× usual
100% 353d agoexcluded
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $230.3k
7.7× usual
100% 355d agoexcluded

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