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Trustinghorse

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.21M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$69.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.58M volume · 9,920 trades · since Jan 17, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$227.6k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$274
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
280d
1865 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $29.4k100% 84d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $20.4k99% 84d agoexcluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ $24.7k99% 131d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $112.9k
5.0× usual
0% 138d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 151d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $83.5k
3.7× usual
99% 152d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $20.6k100% 162d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $17.3k99% 175d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $27.9k100% 175d agoexcluded
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $63.0k
2.8× usual
100% 175d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $127.8k
5.6× usual
100% 179d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.1¢ $49.4k
2.2× usual
94% 190d agoexcluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k0% 191d agoexcluded
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $17.5k0% 191d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 197d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $32.4k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $19.8k1% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $41.2k0% 202d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $17.1k100% 204d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $40.9k0% 207d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $19.2k0% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $11.1k97% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $52.8k
2.3× usual
98% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $37.4k99% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $45.8k
2.0× usual
99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $69.9k
3.1× usual
99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $34.4k98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 74¢ $44.4k26% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $19.4k98% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $20.0k84% 249d agoexcluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $13.6k99% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $10.7k97% 257d agoexcluded
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $13.9k100% 262d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $19.4k0% 263d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$29.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 84d ago
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$20.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 84d ago
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.9¢$24.7k
LOW Trustinghorse · 131d ago
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$112.9k
MED Trustinghorse · 138d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$19.9k
LOW Trustinghorse · 151d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$83.5k
LOW Trustinghorse · 152d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$20.6k
LOW Trustinghorse · 162d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$17.3k
LOW Trustinghorse · 175d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$27.9k
LOW Trustinghorse · 175d ago
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$63.0k
LOW Trustinghorse · 175d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$127.8k
LOW Trustinghorse · 179d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 94.1¢$49.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 190d ago
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW Trustinghorse · 191d ago
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$17.5k
LOW Trustinghorse · 191d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW Trustinghorse · 197d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$32.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99¢$19.8k
LOW Trustinghorse · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$41.2k
LOW Trustinghorse · 202d ago
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$17.1k
LOW Trustinghorse · 204d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$40.9k
LOW Trustinghorse · 207d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$19.2k
LOW Trustinghorse · 237d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97¢$11.1k
LOW Trustinghorse · 237d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98¢$52.8k
LOW Trustinghorse · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$37.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$45.8k
LOW Trustinghorse · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$69.9k
LOW Trustinghorse · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$34.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 74¢$44.4k
MED Trustinghorse · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$19.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 84¢$20.0k
LOW Trustinghorse · 249d ago
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$13.6k
LOW Trustinghorse · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.3¢$10.7k
LOW Trustinghorse · 257d ago
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$13.9k
LOW Trustinghorse · 262d ago
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$19.4k
LOW Trustinghorse · 263d ago

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