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dube

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.5 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$345.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$40.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.86M volume · 4,620 trades · since Nov 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$55.6k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$60
Closed-position win rate
64%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
338d
473 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy100.0-4.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $12.0k99% 130d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $30.0k100% 144d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $20.2k1% 155d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $13.1k1% 185d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $51.5k
2.6× usual
1% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $47.6k
2.4× usual
0% 202d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $19.4k1% 214d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.9k100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $41.7k
2.1× usual
0% 234d agoexcluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $33.8k0% 238d agoexcluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $28.0k100% 239d agoexcluded
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.6k100% 259d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $13.0k1% 267d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.5¢ $10.7k5% 280d agomissed

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