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What this means. A wallet put $590.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$590.0k
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ · 591,214 shares
Size ≥ $250kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)39× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet TheQuietRisk took Yes (sell) for $590.0k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $590.0k+3
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $590.0k
- Placed
- Mar 02, 14:51 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- TheQuietRisk
- Tx
- 0xa01ba11a…
This wallet's graded record
0/8-11.1 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -0 ptsYes price · entry 99.8¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |