dwFqcd4Z

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 7.3 wins, so it did -23.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo+$16.6kNo · avg 76¢ → 96¢ · $77.6k Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?−$735No · avg 79¢ → 74¢ · $9,110 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$1,107No · avg 80¢ → 97.7¢ · $6,189 US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?+$1,169No · avg 74¢ → 93.5¢ · $5,750 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$867No · avg 80¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,650 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+$745No · avg 67¢ → 97.2¢ · $2,402 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?+$87No · avg 89¢ → 93.5¢ · $1,808 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$156No · avg 87¢ → 95.5¢ · $1,786

Price-adjusted edge

-23.7 pts

Called / graded

4/14

Expected from price

7.3

Flagged volume

$3.82M

Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$647k

14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? at 69¢) and the edge is -28.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

20–40¢

0% vs 32% · n=5

40–60¢

0% vs 48% · n=5

60–80¢

100% vs 70% · n=2

80–100¢

100% vs 96% · n=2

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$1.54M

Last 30 days −$651 · $11.90M volume · 1,599 trades · since Dec 28, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	5	2	2.7	-14.4 pts
Sports	5	0	1.9	-37.3 pts
Other	3	1	1.8	-26.4 pts
Economy	1	1	0.9	+5.3 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY No @ 46¢	$32.5k	46%	105d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 37¢	$45.2k	37%	105d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 32¢	$79.6k 2.8× usual	32%	106d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 32¢	$76.1k 2.7× usual	32%	106d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 32¢	$200.0k 7.0× usual	32%	106d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 45¢	$15.1k	45%	114d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 41¢	$11.5k	41%	116d ago	missed
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	MED BUY Yes @ 53¢	$182.3k 6.3× usual	53%	127d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$150.8k 5.3× usual	0%	128d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	MED BUY Yes @ 90.1¢	$148.8k 5.2× usual	90%	130d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$149.2k 5.2× usual	1%	130d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$22.9k	100%	130d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$26.9k	1%	131d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$396.7k 13.8× usual	99%	133d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.7¢	$498.4k 17.4× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$13.2k	99%	178d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$21.0k	0%	178d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$170.5k 5.9× usual	99%	191d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$12.1k	71%	196d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$12.7k	67%	198d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	MED BUY No @ 67¢	$47.3k	67%	202d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	MED BUY No @ 67¢	$35.0k	67%	204d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$25.0k	69%	205d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$17.4k	47%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 27¢	$11.0k	27%	237d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 55¢	$11.6k	55%	237d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 82¢	$42.3k	82%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$19.3k	84%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$16.4k	84%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$18.2k	91%	239d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 94¢	$30.1k	6%	276d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$30.0k	78%	283d ago	called
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$21.5k	97%	284d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.7¢	$21.8k	95%	284d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$23.2k	0%	298d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$34.0k	0%	298d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢	$19.6k	2%	333d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢	$65.8k 2.3× usual	2%	336d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 92.7¢	$102.3k 3.6× usual	7%	368d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$10.9k	83%	369d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$143.8k 5.0× usual	89%	372d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$15.8k	93%	372d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 88¢	$27.4k	12%	372d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 88¢	$33.3k	12%	372d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢	$10.9k	12%	372d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢	$17.6k	12%	372d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢	$11.0k	12%	373d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$18.6k	7%	373d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 88¢	$21.6k	12%	373d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 89¢	$69.4k 2.4× usual	11%	375d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$42.3k	94%	378d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 90¢	$71.0k 2.5× usual	10%	378d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$14.4k	87%	379d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$63.1k 2.2× usual	89%	383d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$20.8k	88%	384d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91.5¢	$50.0k	92%	384d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$25.0k	87%	387d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 86¢	$107.9k 3.8× usual	86%	389d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$84.6k 2.9× usual	94%	394d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$17.6k	88%	394d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$43.0k	88%	395d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$44.9k	89%	396d ago	called

dwFqcd4Z

Current positions

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record