Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$905
Return on staked
-64.6%
Bets
4/14 won
Edge vs price
-23.7 pts ±12.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -9.5 pts (4/7). Newer half: -37.9 pts (0/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 12, 06:42 ESTJul 11, 03:05 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 46¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 37¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 32¢ | missed | 106d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 32¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 32¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 45¢ | missed | 114d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 41¢ | missed | 117d ago |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | 53¢ | missed | 128d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 71¢ | called | 197d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 69¢ | called | 205d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 27¢ | missed | 237d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 55¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | 97¢ | called | 285d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 285d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.