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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$10.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,488
Last 30 days +$0 · $102.6k volume · 234 trades · since Aug 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,635
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$147
Closed-position win rate
85%
41 closed
Wallet age · markets
445d
41 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢ | $10.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4dc176…