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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did -26.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$1.03M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$210.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.92M volume · 6,089 trades · since May 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$240.7k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$30.0k
Closed-position win rate
81%
104 closed
Wallet age · markets
524d
103 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 3.1 | -26.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5fbda3…