{"flags":[{"condition_id":"0xb02e8bc0b915c7d6fc79363f84ca301edeb3c5cd7a7c30cf9517cb4a49a96e35","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6862b15e141c406f082b44e7db73899aa92723f98b9410419a150354f5164f6c:1","id":"trade:0x6862b15e141c406f082b44e7db73899aa92723f98b9410419a150354f5164f6c:1","implied":0.979,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.979,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770827597,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","usd":30358.66273,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xf91604aae685d24b889529b101c599db739db5d883d393d841c0f88924046d27","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2cb04429f2446d588d00162df06cd6a46c740cceff03b93c03491fe4e1e9cab3:1","id":"trade:0x2cb04429f2446d588d00162df06cd6a46c740cceff03b93c03491fe4e1e9cab3:1","implied":0.9819378803,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9819378803,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770699863,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?","usd":15642.476640133862,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8205f5a4ce6245873c6141965165449e30cbad7949f0a3a428896121628fe01b:1","id":"trade:0x8205f5a4ce6245873c6141965165449e30cbad7949f0a3a428896121628fe01b:1","implied":0.0020000000000000018,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.998,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1770698705,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","usd":117897.47252,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5c550ff3af24b16284a0a35b9352a12da8a717ce7193887441fbac071b8e618a:1","id":"trade:0x5c550ff3af24b16284a0a35b9352a12da8a717ce7193887441fbac071b8e618a:1","implied":0.975,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.975,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770634073,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","usd":146970.11549999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x7d7e5024a4329d8d961a374bb8c4aeed1b287143e3e8c1c0841b23a66d62d974:1","id":"trade:0x7d7e5024a4329d8d961a374bb8c4aeed1b287143e3e8c1c0841b23a66d62d974:1","implied":0.9749623348035003,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9749623348035003,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770621499,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","usd":167339.76625264194,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8cf5a1048e8d03a9cfc5e2e5c1c43aef30520faa10df15eceac2197a026cf506:1","id":"trade:0x8cf5a1048e8d03a9cfc5e2e5c1c43aef30520faa10df15eceac2197a026cf506:1","implied":0.982,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.982,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770580395,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","usd":49100.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6a8fb5c75a51798c9d967cff6b972ac41e0775c23ec88f8ab632c0d1004c37eb:1","id":"trade:0x6a8fb5c75a51798c9d967cff6b972ac41e0775c23ec88f8ab632c0d1004c37eb:1","implied":0.986013986,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.986013986,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1770560453,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","usd":10721.7099979668,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x8fcd8d30e559d75d1f1ac26fb61c118910d271a55ecce8e05367b1a6114bf20e","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x05e3e50853fe4f5653f0d58cfe54b509c16bef411d0befffb2aef60ea7416893:1","id":"trade:0x05e3e50853fe4f5653f0d58cfe54b509c16bef411d0befffb2aef60ea7416893:1","implied":0.9810000000000001,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9810000000000001,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1769929972,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?","usd":17557.62408,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xabb86b080e9858dcb3f46954010e49b6f539c20036856c7f999395bfd58d01e6","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x09e045bdc8af6042f554b663479c87cae62146dab33421d7bf725b940091c6d9:1","id":"trade:0x09e045bdc8af6042f554b663479c87cae62146dab33421d7bf725b940091c6d9:1","implied":0.88,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.88,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1769459223,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","usd":15931.836800000001,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x843fc1f23d8cfd3df343031312a8a3f0a930ad118c0c0e81a56c21f0ea9ff217","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xea31ff4f7a6476328ba94d476273c62a0a1471176433759470850a828fd194ac:1","id":"trade:0xea31ff4f7a6476328ba94d476273c62a0a1471176433759470850a828fd194ac:1","implied":0.93,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.93,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768842342,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?","usd":54850.330500000004,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xd1047755d35a03b7ceea9923daae56ecf67784446daa63e87eebc471b4b9dbd9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xccce8a9809419404e055713fbc06fd21ec9b9dcd06a43eae58731f3501ea824a:1","id":"trade:0xccce8a9809419404e055713fbc06fd21ec9b9dcd06a43eae58731f3501ea824a:1","implied":0.9556869387353133,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9556869387353133,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768495576,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?","usd":45900.5064,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x17815081230e3b9c78b098162c33b1ffa68c4ec29c123d3d14989599e0c2e113","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8608faeba2f6e4cb9605dc90e4f05ed9016e8f7302420d16a0a3cc98d9edabb4:1","id":"trade:0x8608faeba2f6e4cb9605dc90e4f05ed9016e8f7302420d16a0a3cc98d9edabb4:1","implied":0.0039999999999998925,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9960000000000001,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1768495556,"title":"Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?","usd":132296.84736,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xb214dd711464095ced5ed125ab68a3ec4275ae97c9e8cb918bf76a0fcb0a4990:0","id":"trade:0xb214dd711464095ced5ed125ab68a3ec4275ae97c9e8cb918bf76a0fcb0a4990:0","implied":0.7254435481,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.2745564519,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1768486598,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","usd":16046.998198634781,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8a536e77c946000747856073f0404b087816a0b1155e87fc338e8ede85aa05dc:0","id":"trade:0x8a536e77c946000747856073f0404b087816a0b1155e87fc338e8ede85aa05dc:0","implied":0.89,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.10999999999999999,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1768486570,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":19005.371,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xabb86b080e9858dcb3f46954010e49b6f539c20036856c7f999395bfd58d01e6","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x46c51eecd41013b446f6307c6486f33a6a447628449b9d3bbc7ba13d02675883:0","id":"trade:0x46c51eecd41013b446f6307c6486f33a6a447628449b9d3bbc7ba13d02675883:0","implied":0.79,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.79,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1768414670,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","usd":12304.9689,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x23fd2b26c4e095465ba0d2ebce8d5eda57009ddc59aad8b68ab19ca968b41eed","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2dba96a86c8ee032003a8071c85c088b01d55f2c5fa49be46a55fb9a9a00ee4b:1","id":"trade:0x2dba96a86c8ee032003a8071c85c088b01d55f2c5fa49be46a55fb9a9a00ee4b:1","implied":0.44999999999999996,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.55,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1768320625,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","usd":14693.0685,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe62622f157dd67a9e612a280bce0932ed262e75a75f10e01ecfa93603d34921d:0","id":"trade:0xe62622f157dd67a9e612a280bce0932ed262e75a75f10e01ecfa93603d34921d:0","implied":0.16,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.16,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1767905316,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":14106.8448,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x17815081230e3b9c78b098162c33b1ffa68c4ec29c123d3d14989599e0c2e113","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x71227023d9551ea7d85f31076406dfe63f4270683c448335d515718fd1b9ad46:1","id":"trade:0x71227023d9551ea7d85f31076406dfe63f4270683c448335d515718fd1b9ad46:1","implied":0.9859999999999999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9859999999999999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1765641833,"title":"Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?","usd":19802.360579999997,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"},{"condition_id":"0x6903b766f5fda3d5b02f4472a6b4154419e78b7fd126c0b29ce17bb8e20b20cc","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x77f218911cb41ff23776a978b7b458e4f74c59033cbecbc6c06e99f79c46809a:1","id":"trade:0x77f218911cb41ff23776a978b7b458e4f74c59033cbecbc6c06e99f79c46809a:1","implied":0.9751825979251201,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9751825979251201,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1762622293,"title":"Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?","usd":127780.92582105464,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"}],"record":{"called":2,"edge":-0.2652826217088283,"exp_rate":0.7652826217088283,"expected":3.0611304868353133,"hit":0.5,"n":4,"se":0.18609886829420164},"wallet":"0x5fbda3012b33020fd58265779b2836575d8cfb37"}
