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What this means. A wallet put $45.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. It won. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$45.9k
BUY No @ 95.6¢ · 48,029 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0x5fbd…fb37 took No (buy) for $45.9k at an average 95.6¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $45.9k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2157American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95.6¢
- Implied odds
- 95.6%
- Size
- $45.9k
- Placed
- Jan 15, 11:46 EST
- Market close
- Jan 17, 02:47 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x5fbd…fb37
- Tx
- 0xccce8a98…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-26.5 pts
expected 3.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +4 ptsNo price · entry 95.6¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $45.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $20.9k | excluded |