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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +15.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.7 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$103.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$81.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $907.8k volume · 479 trades · since Feb 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$81.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
73%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
628d
22 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +15.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $56.2k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $16.1k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $15.5k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5d861b…