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What this means. A wallet put $15.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.6k
BUY No @ 98.2¢ · 15,930 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x5fbd…fb37 took No (buy) for $15.6k at an average 98.2¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.6k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−5436American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98.2¢
- Implied odds
- 98.2%
- Size
- $15.6k
- Placed
- Feb 10, 00:04 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x5fbd…fb37
- Tx
- 0x2cb04429…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-26.5 pts
expected 3.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $75.4k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $350.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $51.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $17.9k | excluded |