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0xa9e8…c443

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -30.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-30.8 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$1.86M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$219.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $46.63M volume · 63,829 trades · since Oct 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$604.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$774
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
746d
5728 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other312.1-36.4 pts
Crypto100.1-14.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $49.3k98% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $17.0k98% 200d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED BUY No @ 96.1¢ $28.1k96% 200d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 82¢ $18.4k18% 212d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $11.0k14% 227d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $18.2k88% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $18.9k0% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $22.3k94% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $22.2k0% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $58.0k
2.2× usual
97% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $66.7k
2.5× usual
0% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $13.9k95% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $10.6k1% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $10.1k96% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.9k96% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $48.5k98% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $76.6k
2.9× usual
0% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $39.7k1% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $62.9k
2.4× usual
99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $12.3k97% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $13.5k1% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $10.7k97% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $32.2k2% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $75.1k
2.8× usual
97% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $75.1k
2.8× usual
0% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $33.6k97% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $33.5k2% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $43.3k98% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $27.7k96% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $34.0k0% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $79.6k
3.0× usual
1% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $25.1k96% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $16.7k98% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $91.6k
3.5× usual
98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $112.3k
4.3× usual
0% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $28.5k0% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ $10.4k97% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $28.3k98% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $29.7k0% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $11.7k96% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $11.9k84% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $10.8k86% 250d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.7k96% 250d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $11.2k1% 253d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $14.6k98% 254d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $75.4k
2.9× usual
0% 255d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $30.5k97% 255d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $61.2k
2.3× usual
99% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $46.8k97% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $10.9k98% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $15.8k99% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $11.9k97% 261d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ $33.2k97% 261d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $38.9k0% 270d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $11.7k97% 273d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ $15.9k95% 281d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$49.3k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$17.0k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 200d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed
BUY No @ 96.1¢$28.1k
MED 0xa9e8…c443 · 200d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 82¢$18.4k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 212d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?missed
SELL No @ 86¢$11.0k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 227d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 88¢$18.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$18.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 94¢$22.3k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$22.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$58.0k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$66.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 95¢$13.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$10.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.5¢$10.1k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$20.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$48.5k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$76.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$39.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$62.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.3¢$12.3k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$13.5k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.6¢$10.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.3¢$32.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$75.1k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$75.1k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$33.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.5¢$33.5k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$43.3k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.5¢$27.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$34.0k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$79.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$25.1k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.7¢$16.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$91.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$112.3k
MED 0xa9e8…c443 · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$28.5k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.7¢$10.4k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$28.3k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$29.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$11.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 84¢$11.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 86¢$10.8k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 250d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$20.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 250d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$11.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 253d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$14.6k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 254d ago
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$75.4k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 255d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$30.5k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 255d ago
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$61.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$46.8k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$10.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$15.8k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$11.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 261d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.7¢$33.2k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 261d ago
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$38.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 270d ago
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$11.7k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 273d ago
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?called
BUY No @ 95.2¢$15.9k
LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 281d ago

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa9e8fa…