DonaldinhoTrumpito

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 16. The prices it paid implied about 12.8 wins, so it did +1.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$16.7kNo · avg 97¢ → 80¢ · $80.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$6,550No · avg 83¢ → 96.1¢ · $48.0k Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$288No · avg 97.7¢ → 98.9¢ · $24.7k Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$6,219No · avg 61¢ → 88¢ · $20.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?+$3,700No · avg 75¢ → 93.5¢ · $18.7k Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$300Yes · avg 94¢ → 97¢ · $9,700 Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?+$761No · avg 79¢ → 93.5¢ · $5,007 Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat?+$50Yes · avg 93¢ → 95¢ · $2,375

Price-adjusted edge

+1.2 pts

Called / graded

13/16

Expected from price

12.8

Flagged volume

$4.43M

Sample size16 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$52k

16 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? at 40¢) and the edge is -2.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

40–60¢

100% vs 48% · n=2

60–80¢

40% vs 74% · n=5

80–100¢

100% vs 91% · n=9

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$330.6k

Last 30 days −$12.7k · $56.29M volume · 29,609 trades · since Aug 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	0	0.7	-69.0 pts
Other	13	11	10.2	+5.8 pts
Politics	2	2	1.9	+5.9 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US Open ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx	LOW BUY Francisco Cerundolo @ 67¢	$14.6k	67%	46d ago	excluded
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢	$24.2k	97%	59d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$24.6k	69%	64d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$75.1k 2.1× usual	94%	66d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$16.4k	94%	66d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.9k	99%	66d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 96.1¢	$24.7k	4%	73d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$94.7k 2.6× usual	0%	73d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢	$35.5k	1%	77d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$48.3k	98%	79d ago	excluded
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$80.6k 2.2× usual	100%	80d ago	excluded
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$11.5k	90%	80d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$11.6k	83%	80d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$99.2k 2.7× usual	99%	93d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$99.2k 2.7× usual	99%	94d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$14.1k	99%	96d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL No @ 99.7¢	$278.6k 7.7× usual	0%	113d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$14.8k	87%	115d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$14.5k	1%	115d ago	excluded
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$46.8k	74%	128d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 57¢	$57.0k	57%	146d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$37.1k	0%	147d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$11.8k	98%	158d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$18.2k	93%	163d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$28.7k	1%	166d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$22.5k	70%	171d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$28.2k	94%	174d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$31.1k	1%	174d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$24.1k	81%	175d ago	called
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 65¢	$56.5k	65%	175d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$74.4k 2.0× usual	93%	176d ago	called
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$139.5k 3.8× usual	93%	176d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$115.9k 3.2× usual	0%	176d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$27.0k	100%	177d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	MED BUY No @ 93.8¢	$94.5k 2.6× usual	94%	185d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$137.0k 3.8× usual	1%	185d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$74.5k 2.1× usual	99%	186d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$30.5k	74%	186d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢	$148.9k 4.1× usual	1%	186d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$19.0k	76%	192d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢	$14.7k	2%	192d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢	$31.1k	98%	194d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$211.7k 5.8× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢	$96.7k 2.7× usual	97%	205d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$39.4k	99%	206d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$12.6k	90%	206d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$106.6k 2.9× usual	100%	209d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$160.7k 4.4× usual	1%	214d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$79.0k 2.2× usual	99%	214d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$43.5k	99%	215d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$16.6k	1%	215d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 78¢	$100.7k 2.8× usual	78%	226d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$52.4k	87%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$37.6k	87%	232d ago	called
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢	$10.5k	96%	233d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$32.6k	84%	235d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91.2¢	$34.4k	91%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢	$90.7k 2.5× usual	95%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.2¢	$27.9k	95%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢	$13.8k	55%	239d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$25.7k	99%	242d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$10.2k	100%	244d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$39.0k	78%	246d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$31.7k	100%	246d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$11.7k	78%	247d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$14.5k	96%	248d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$12.0k	40%	249d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$49.8k	100%	252d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$49.8k	100%	252d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$51.8k	100%	255d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$194.3k 5.4× usual	100%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$112.2k 3.1× usual	0%	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$50.0k	99%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.1k	100%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$11.2k	78%	268d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$39.0k	78%	271d ago	called
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.3¢	$12.7k	94%	278d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$104.8k 2.9× usual	100%	295d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢	$23.7k	94%	311d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 2.7× usual	100%	318d ago	excluded

DonaldinhoTrumpito

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