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What this means. A wallet put $19.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 82% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.6k
BUY Yes @ 82¢ · 23,947 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (buy) for $19.6k at an average 82¢. At that price the market implied a 82% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 82¢ means
82%chance the market gave
−456American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 82¢
- Implied odds
- 82.0%
- Size
- $19.6k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 14:29 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x7e69b831…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +18 ptsYes price · entry 82¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |