← Wallets
+$20No · avg 77¢ → 82¢ · $367−$327Yes · avg 45¢ → 16¢ · $180−$9Yes · avg 17¢ → 15¢ · $113
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -84.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-84.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$32.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$29.4k
Last 30 days +$102 · $194.0k volume · 181 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$26.8k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$2,671
Closed-position win rate
88%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
39 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -84.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $10.1k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc90fec…