← Wallets
−$45No · avg 25¢ → 15¢ · $64
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +22.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+22.6 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$200.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,317
Last 30 days +$1 · $1.14M volume · 1,217 trades · since Feb 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8,646
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$18.0k
Closed-position win rate
89%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
253d
63 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | +22.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $23.7k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $23.6k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $12.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $11.1k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $23.0k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $22.8k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $15.7k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $16.0k | missed |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $20.1k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 47¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.3k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
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