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OLOTH

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$807No · avg 92.3¢ → 97.9¢ · $14.2kWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$84Yes · avg 92.2¢ → 91.5¢ · $10.6kWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$656Yes · avg 88¢ → 80¢ · $7,121Macron out by December 31, 2026?+$36No · avg 92.6¢ → 95.7¢ · $1,114NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?+$95No · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $978Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?+$19No · avg 95¢ → 96.9¢ · $968French election called by December 31, 2026?+$31No · avg 91¢ → 94.2¢ · $923Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$15No · avg 82¢ → 80¢ · $805 · 1 proven with, 0 against
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$287.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.8k
Last 30 days −$6 · $3.16M volume · 4,378 trades · since May 15, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$23.6k
Open P&L · 48 positions
−$1,167
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1258d
1193 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 87d agoexcluded
Will France win on 2026-07-09?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $17.2k99% 106d agoexcluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $16.7k100% 126d agoexcluded
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $14.0k0% 132d agoexcluded
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 160d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $12.1k100% 170d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $14.0k100% 194d agoexcluded
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $14.0k100% 196d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $12.6k99% 200d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k99% 212d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $18.0k100% 235d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 236d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k100% 239d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 239d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $20.1k99% 248d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $10.1k100% 258d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $12.3k100% 269d agoexcluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $10.4k100% 293d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW OLOTH · 87d ago
Will France win on 2026-07-09?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$17.2k
LOW OLOTH · 106d ago
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$16.7k
LOW OLOTH · 126d ago
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$14.0k
LOW OLOTH · 132d ago
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW OLOTH · 160d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$12.1k
LOW OLOTH · 170d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$14.0k
LOW OLOTH · 194d ago
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$14.0k
LOW OLOTH · 196d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$12.6k
LOW OLOTH · 200d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW OLOTH · 212d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$18.0k
LOW OLOTH · 235d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW OLOTH · 236d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$15.0k
LOW OLOTH · 239d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW OLOTH · 239d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW OLOTH · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$20.1k
LOW OLOTH · 248d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$10.1k
LOW OLOTH · 258d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$12.3k
LOW OLOTH · 269d ago
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$10.4k
LOW OLOTH · 293d ago

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