WhaleGrader Log inSign up
← Wallets

Tigerofthehood

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 8.8 wins, so it did +10.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+10.6 pts
Called / graded
10/11
Expected from price
8.8
Flagged volume
$3.97M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$35k
11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$62k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russ at 68¢) and the edge is +8.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$271.9k
Last 30 days +$3,767 · $38.99M volume · 18,294 trades · since Dec 01, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$90.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
150 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
249 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics443.3+17.1 pts
Economy221.9+7.5 pts
Other543.7+6.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Iran leadership change by December 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $17.2k86% 3d agopending
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $24.2k0% 19d agoexcluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $19.2k96% 33d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $11.8k74% 35d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $43.8k100% 57d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $20.3k0% 60d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $19.8k1% 67d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $11.3k0% 67d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $28.1k97% 72d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $15.1k13% 77d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $26.1k1% 78d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ $41.7k97% 83d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $31.2k0% 87d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $20.9k100% 87d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $44.7k99% 90d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $36.7k99% 91d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k99% 92d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $34.7k99% 93d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $13.9k93% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ $55.2k
2.2× usual
92% 101d agocalled
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢ $18.6k94% 104d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $28.2k94% 124d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $14.1k94% 124d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $40.5k92% 126d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $16.4k82% 128d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ $30.0k99% 130d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $12.3k95% 131d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED BUY Yes @ 96.3¢ $33.7k96% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $16.9k2% 134d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $23.8k99% 144d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $32.0k1% 150d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $21.6k98% 153d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $20.9k94% 157d agocalled
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k0% 157d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $13.3k1% 158d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $48.3k93% 160d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $31.2k1% 165d agoexcluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $59.8k
2.3× usual
0% 165d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $14.8k1% 166d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $61.8k
2.4× usual
5% 170d agomissed
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 173d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $17.5k92% 174d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $12.7k91% 175d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $210.7k
8.3× usual
0% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $39.5k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.0k0% 177d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $24.9k0% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.4k100% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.2k100% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $16.4k100% 178d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $16.5k3% 178d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $17.8k99% 179d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $22.1k1% 179d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $134.0k
5.3× usual
96% 179d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $133.0k
5.2× usual
0% 181d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $64.1k
2.5× usual
99% 187d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k0% 187d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $11.2k99% 187d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $45.4k0% 187d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $48.5k1% 189d agoexcluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $80.3k
3.2× usual
0% 191d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ $31.0k2% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ $18.5k99% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $20.6k0% 200d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $49.8k96% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $49.8k0% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $21.5k100% 200d agoexcluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ $10.2k68% 200d agocalled
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $78.4k
3.1× usual
0% 202d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $126.6k
5.0× usual
100% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $165.3k
6.5× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $72.8k
2.9× usual
0% 207d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $19.8k94% 208d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $23.1k99% 211d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $32.2k99% 212d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $66.1k
2.6× usual
99% 213d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $78.0k
3.1× usual
1% 213d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $50.0k99% 214d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $54.8k
2.2× usual
1% 215d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $13.3k98% 230d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.7k
3.9× usual
100% 234d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $86.6k
3.4× usual
100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $29.9k0% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $14.8k0% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.7¢ $19.9k97% 237d agoexcluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% 254d agoexcluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $23.0k100% 256d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $67.2k
2.6× usual
100% 257d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $17.1k99% 268d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $19.4k1% 268d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $12.0k100% 268d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $71.1k
2.8× usual
100% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $99.1k
3.9× usual
99% 270d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $99.8k
3.9× usual
100% 270d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $34.3k98% 270d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $43.8k100% 272d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $33.4k97% 275d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $21.0k0% 294d agoexcluded

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x9c2617…