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+$106No · avg 91¢ → 92.5¢ · $6,548
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +7.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.0 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$107.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.3k
Last 30 days +$372 · $2.11M volume · 1,245 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$67.1k
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$238
Closed-position win rate
90%
231 closed
Wallet age · markets
633d
228 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +8.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $10.1k | called |
 Will Trump visit China by May 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $13.7k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $10.6k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ | $13.9k | called |
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