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Debosnys

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$1,062No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $27.0kWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$6No · avg 94.4¢ → 94.5¢ · $7,182 · 1 proven with, 0 againstChina x Japan military clash before 2027?+$258No · avg 91.9¢ → 95.9¢ · $6,206Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$36No · avg 95.7¢ → 95¢ · $5,381Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?+$18No · avg 97.5¢ → 97.9¢ · $4,973Trump out as President before 2027?−$7No · avg 95.9¢ → 95.8¢ · $4,797Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$1,147No · avg 73¢ → 97.4¢ · $4,575Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?+$116No · avg 87¢ → 90¢ · $4,156
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.66M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$77.4k
Last 30 days −$4,825 · $36.49M volume · 32,808 trades · since Oct 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$228.3k
Open P&L · 70 positions
−$1,242
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
730d
2914 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $24.0k99% 38d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $24.5k0% 38d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $11.2k100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $35.5k1% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $12.3k99% 129d agoexcluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $14.1k0% 165d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $30.6k100% 174d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $92.3k
3.8× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
4.1× usual
0% 189d agoexcluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $23.5k99% 191d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $22.1k100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $99.8k
4.1× usual
100% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $18.1k100% 200d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $14.6k0% 205d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $29.9k100% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $13.4k1% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $49.3k
2.0× usual
99% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $30.1k100% 219d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $137.9k
5.6× usual
100% 236d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $55.5k
2.3× usual
100% 236d agoexcluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.9k100% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $21.4k2% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $62.9k
2.6× usual
98% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $12.0k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $10.5k97% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $77.7k
3.2× usual
100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $13.4k100% 243d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $22.8k100% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $14.8k0% 266d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $61.4k
2.5× usual
100% 266d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $11.1k100% 268d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $40.0k100% 273d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $27.3k99% 281d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.0× usual
100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $204.7k
8.4× usual
100% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $159.4k
6.5× usual
0% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.7¢ $15.3k94% 355d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$24.0k
LOW Debosnys · 38d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$24.5k
LOW Debosnys · 38d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$11.2k
LOW Debosnys · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$35.5k
LOW Debosnys · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$12.3k
LOW Debosnys · 129d ago
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$14.1k
LOW Debosnys · 165d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$30.6k
LOW Debosnys · 174d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$92.3k
LOW Debosnys · 177d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW Debosnys · 189d ago
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$23.5k
LOW Debosnys · 191d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$22.1k
LOW Debosnys · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$99.8k
LOW Debosnys · 200d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$18.1k
LOW Debosnys · 200d ago
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$14.6k
LOW Debosnys · 205d ago
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$29.9k
LOW Debosnys · 206d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$13.4k
LOW Debosnys · 206d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$49.3k
LOW Debosnys · 206d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$30.1k
LOW Debosnys · 219d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$137.9k
LOW Debosnys · 236d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$55.5k
LOW Debosnys · 236d ago
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$13.9k
LOW Debosnys · 237d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.5¢$21.4k
LOW Debosnys · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$62.9k
LOW Debosnys · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$12.0k
LOW Debosnys · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.9¢$10.5k
LOW Debosnys · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$77.7k
LOW Debosnys · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$13.4k
LOW Debosnys · 243d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$22.8k
LOW Debosnys · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$14.8k
LOW Debosnys · 266d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$61.4k
LOW Debosnys · 266d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$11.1k
LOW Debosnys · 268d ago
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$40.0k
LOW Debosnys · 273d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$27.3k
LOW Debosnys · 281d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW Debosnys · 294d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$204.7k
LOW Debosnys · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$159.4k
LOW Debosnys · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 93.7¢$15.3k
LOW Debosnys · 355d ago

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